HOUSTON - There is a 90 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the Louisiana to Alabama coast during the upcoming hurricane season. This is the highest risk of any of the coastline from Texas through Maine. According to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Houston-based Weather Research Center, the Gulf of Mexico could be an active place for storm activity this summer. After Louisiana-Alabama, the next highest risk of a storm strike is the west coast of Florida with a 80 percent chance and the third highest is the Texas coast with a 70 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.

The overall outlook calls for ten named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean basin with six reaching hurricane intensity. There could be storms as early as June which has a 60 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane, and as late as November which has a 30 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. Also, there is a 80 percent chance of a Category 3 or greater hurricane occurring somewhere in the Atlantic. A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 MPH.

Other recent years that have been in this forecast phase are 1957, 1967, 1979 and 1989. Notable storms in those years were Hurricane Audry 1957, which made landfall on the Louisiana coast; Hurricane Beulah in 1967, that made landfall on the lower Texas Coast; Hurricane Frederic in 1979, which made landfall along the Alabama coast and Hurricane Hugo in 1989, which made landfall on the South Carolina coast. Also in 1989, Galveston, Texas saw three storms make landfall: Tropical Storm Allison, Hurricane Chantal and Hurricane Jerry.

Every section of the United States coastline has a chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane each year. This outlook does not indicate that one will not experience a storm, but rather indicates which section of coastline will most likely experience a storm. The Center has been making these predictions since 1985 and makes only one forecast per hurricane season. This differs from other forecasts as a result of different methods and theory. Last year, the section of coastline with the highest risk was the west coast of Florida with a 90 percent chance. This forecast verified with Hurricanes Earl and Mitch. The outlook called for eight storms. There were 14 total storms, ten becoming hurricanes. During the 14 years of outlooks, these forecasts have verified with a strike in the highest risk coastline each year, with the exception of 1987 and 1992 when storms struck in the second highest risk coastline. In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.