What does 30 percent chance of snow mean?
The phrase “30 Percent Probability of Snow” often causes bafflement and intrigue among those who follow the ever-changing world of weather forecasting.
It is important to explore the nuances of weather forecasting, explain the meaning of probability, and clarify the definition of this often misunderstood statement.
You will have a better appreciation for how meteorologists arrive at such findings and what this information means for your daily life.
So, what does a 30 chance of snow mean in the real world?
A 30% probability of precipitation indicates that at least 0.01 inches of snow is likely to fall within that area in a specified time range.
Understanding Probability in Weather Forecasts
The last few decades have seen vast developments in weather forecasting with high-resolution satellites, more accurate data and modeling.
As forecasting becomes more sophisticated, many industry sectors use this data in their planning and decision-making.
Even so, predicting the weather still carries a level of uncertainty.
Fact: The United States Army Signal Corps released the first snow forecasts in the 1870s using telegraphed meteorological reports from all around the country.
Basics of Probability in Weather Forecasting
Probability is used to describe the likelihood of certain events occurring.
Usually, we assign a percentage to the possibility of a favorable outcome based on what we already know.
Therefore, probability can also be defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total possible outcomes.
How Meteorologists Use Probability to Predict Snow
In snow predicting, a probability forecast includes a mathematical expression of uncertainty.
Meteorologists understood that forecast users wanted either expressions of certainty or certain uncertainty, which is difficult given the nature of the weather.
However, with better data collection, advanced computers and modeling, meteorologists have a wide range of statistics to help them determine the probability of weather events.
They use this information to be able to make their prediction faster than ever before.
The Process of Collecting Data to Predict Snow
Most data is collected in real time using different instruments, including:
- Doppler radar
- Weather observation satellites
- Radiosondes on weather balloons
- Automated surface observation systems
It also includes historical data and observations of similar weather events.
All of this helps gather data that meteorologists consider before determining how likely it is for a weather event to occur.
Fact: Faster communication of weather observations, made possible by the introduction of the telegraph in the 19th century, greatly improved the accuracy of predicting snowstorms.
The Role of Probability in Weather Communication
A probability forecast seeks to accurately describe the likelihood of future weather events although it is still limited by what scientists can collect and use as numerical data.
Although probability forecasts for precipitation have been used for many years now there are still concerns in the weather reporting world about just how well the layperson understands them.
During research on the subject, some people surveyed had a basic understanding but others had none.
Furthermore, experts agree that some probability statements are ambiguous and even subjective with how the public interprets degrees of likelihood based on their personal experiences.
What Does 30 Percent Chance of Snow Mean?
When you hear someone say that there is a 30% chance of rain, does that mean it is quite likely to rain in your area? Well, it depends.
For example, saying there is a 30% chance of snow means there is a 30% chance of at least 0.01 inches of precipitation somewhere within the specified area in the forecasting region over a specified time.
However, it does not mean it will snow everywhere in the region for 30% of the time.
Interpretation of 30 Percent Probability
If the weather forecast predicts there is a 30% chance of snow that afternoon, the 30% is a measure of confidence that there will be snow at any given point in the area by 6 pm.
The snow will happen but will only happen in 30% of the given area.
The probability of precipitation, PoP, is calculated mathematically as the product of the confidence of snow and that it will occur in the forecast area with the percentage of the area that will receive it.
Factors Considered by Meteorologists in Determining Snow Probability
PoP describes rainfall, but it refers to rain in all its states.
When predicting snow meteorologists use the snow ratio to translate the volume of snow into an assumed liquid state.
The typical snow to water ratio is 10:1.
As they refine their judgments, forecasters take other factors into consideration.
Temperature
When temperatures drop below freezing, snow falls, although the atmospheric temperature is just one factor in the formation of snow.
Whether a cloud produces snow depends on the air temperature as it is forming.
It has to contain water vapor that can freeze and form ice crystals.
But, due to slower evaporation there is less water vapor available in colder temperatures.
The ice crystals are essential because they are the nucleation sites the snowflakes form around.
Humidity
To form snow needs water vapor and the amount available depends on the air’s temperature.
Therefore, meteorologists consider humidity levels when refining their judgments on the probability of snow.
They measure the weight of the moisture in the air.
This is because hot air expands and rises but cold air contracts to become heavier and sinks.
As the air expands it can hold more water molecules than it can when it is cold and dense.
Atmospheric pressure
Air pressure or barometric pressure, describes the weight of a column of air pressing down on the Earth’s surface.
Falling atmospheric pressure reliably signals the approach of low-pressure weather systems.
As rising air cools rapidly as the temperatures at altitude fall, any water vapor present condenses out of the air to form clouds, rain or snow.
Snowstorms develop along the fault line of clashing air masses where the cold air meets the warmer humid air.
Wind patterns
Because the difference between a snowstorm and a blizzard is the amount of wind, meteorologists consider wind patterns when making their snow probability judgments.
Cold air pushes warm away and considering the wind’s speed and direction can alert meteorologists of incoming weather with snow events such as bomb cyclones in severe storms and hurricanes or thundersnow.
This snow falls in summer thunderstorms when an area of high humidity is rapidly cooled high in the atmosphere.
Fact: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are atmospheric computer simulations that use various data sources to produce precise snowfall predictions.
How to Prepare for a 30 percent Chance of Snow?
Using a measurement of probability makes preparing for snow difficult because it gives no indication of how much snow to expect.
Conditions dictate snow will fall somewhere but at 30% not everyone will experience it. The forecast is accurate once the snow falls on that day, in that area.
When meteorologists predict a 30 percent chance of snow today, they mean that on 3 out of 10 days when conditions were just like today, there was snow.
The 7 days out of the 10 when there was no snow at all could prompt you to do very little to prepare.
Limitations and Uncertainties in Weather Forecasts
Predicting precipitation against global warming remains challenging.
Falling rain, frozen or not, is the end product of many complex processes happening in the turmoil of the atmosphere.
Precipitation fields shift but these shifts are becoming wider, creating uncertainties about the future of our weather.
With advances in meteorology, predicting storms five days ahead is considered the limit of numerical prediction.
This prompts the most eminent meteorologists to consider if there is an ‘ultimate limit’ for predicting daily weather.
In the mid-latitudes presently, forecasts are accurate up to 10 days ahead although new technology is expected to push this 12 to 14.
But, how long it is going to take is still not clear.
Fact: Tracking snowstorms and other weather systems is made easier with the use of satellite imaging, which shows cloud cover and precipitation patterns in great detail.
Takeaway
What does 30 percent chance of snow mean?
The unpredictability and difficulty of weather forecasts are reflected in the 30% likelihood of snow.
If there is a 30% chance of snow, then there is a 30% possibility that at least 0.1 inches of snow will fall somewhere, sometimes.
Preparing for a 30 percent probability of snow can be difficult due to the many variables at play.
Nonetheless, progress in meteorology has led to more accurate forecasts, allowing humans to better prepare for and react to weather changes.
